Ratcliffe's random ramblings

The two cites studies are by Tom Hogan: Hogan, T. P. (2022). De-prosecution and death: A synthetic control analysis of the impact of de-prosecution on homicides. Criminology and Public Policy, 21(3), 489-534. And another larger analysis: Petersen, N., Mitchell, O., & Yan, S. (2024). Do progressive prosecutors increase crime? A quasi-experimental analysis of crime rates in the 100 largest counties, 2000–2020. Criminology & Public Policy, 23, 459–490.

Cited article is Henderson, H., Bourgeois, J. W., Smith, S., Ferguson, C. J., & Barthelemy, J. (2024). Police shootings, violent crime, race and socio-economic factors in municipalities in the United States of America. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health , 34(3), 296-310. Abstract is available here . Full paper copy: .

Cited study is Rossmo, D. K., Bouchard, M., & Summers, L. (2025). Criminal Investigative Failures: A Network Analysis. Justice Quarterly, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2025.2594189 Read it here:

The cited work is: McLean, K., Bussey, T., Nix, J., Rojek, J., & Alpert, G. P. (2026). Police de-escalation training and its effects on communication: Evidence from an experimental evaluation. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004723522600005X You can read the CrimRxiv Consortium pre-print of the work publicly available here .

The particular paper under discussion is: Groff, ER, Ratcliffe, JH, Haberman, CP, Sorg, ET, Joyce, N and Taylor, RB (2015) Does what police do at hot spots matter? The Philadelphia Policing Tactics Experiment, Criminology, 53(1): 23-53. It is open access here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1745-9125.12055 There are some more results and details at this site: https://www.jerryratcliffe.net/philadelphia-predictive-polic

The cited study is Nazzari, M., Calaresu, M. & Triventi, M. No sales after midnight: evaluating the impact of a business curfew on drug-related crime in San Francisco’s tenderloin. Security Journal, 39, 5 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-025-00517-w

The cited study is Heflin, J., McCannon, B.C. (2026) The Impact of California’s Zero Dollar Bail Policy On Crime. Am J Crim Just (2026). You can access it here: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-025-09880-1

There has been a great deal written about Boston's Operation Ceasefire, but the original evaluation is at BRAGA, A. A., KENNEDY, D. M., WARING, E. J., & PIEHL, A. M. (2001). Problem-Oriented Policing, Deterrence, and Youth Violence: An Evaluation of Boston’s Operation Ceasefire. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency , 38 (3), 195-225. It is online here .

The cited paper is Hubbard-Chason, T., Ariel, B., Assaraf, N., & Harinam, V. (2025). Reducing Crime on London Buses: A Randomised Controlled Trial on Moving Hotspots. Police Quarterly . It is open access and available here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10986111251392931